A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
